The AI trade keeps running into walls. First it was chips, then memory, then power, and now it comes down to one small part inside every gas turbine. That is why I have been digging into SpaceX turbine blades and what they could mean for the whole power trade. Why SpaceX Turbine Blades Matter Now GE Vernova, Siemens and Mitsubishi are the heavy hitters in gas turbines, and they are booked out for years. The part holding everything up is the blade itself, running anywhere from 18 to 24 months … Read more

Every week we rotate through the traders at Simpler Trading for the members-only weekly watch list, and this week it was my turn. I’m sharing it here because the theme ties right into my weekend review: extremes lead to reversion. Let’s take a deeper look at the mean reversion trade I’m watching and the setups already showing strength. What the Mean Reversion Trade Looks Like Right Now For weeks, tech, semiconductors and anything tied to AI got absolutely pummeled. Meanwhile, the anything-but-AI names kept moving up. Think Walmart and Home … Read more

Bitcoin and gold look like two separate stories on the surface. Lay the weekly charts on top of each other, though, and they keep taking turns. Here is the Bitcoin vs gold correlation I have been talking about in interviews and in the Moxie room I was doing an interview earlier this week with a couple of guys who are deep into commodities and precious metals. For a while now I have said there is an inverse relationship between Bitcoin and gold, so I lined up Bitcoin futures and gold … Read more

Every time I talk about leveraged ETFs, someone tells me they decay. That’s not quite right. They don’t decay like an option does. What actually hurts them is leveraged ETF slippage, and it shows up on the way up and on the way down. These funds reset every day. They use derivatives, options and futures contracts to deliver 2x or 3x the daily move of the underlying. Over one day, the math holds. Over weeks and months, those daily resets stack up, and the result drifts away from a clean … Read more

The market has been looking stronger since mid last week, and if you caught my last two weekend videos, you saw me pointing at bottoming patterns before it started to move. On Monday, Amazon finally joined in. After a long pullback, it printed a green Moxie price trigger, with positive divergence on the Moxie Indicator telling me the low was in. I already had a swing position on Amazon, but the intraday setup was screaming at me. Price was bull flagging into the 50, squeezes were stacked everywhere, and the … Read more

Every trader has had this moment. You are in a good position, price starts sliding, it breaks the level you were leaning on, and you have no idea whether you are watching a pause or the top. I spent years getting that call wrong in both directions. What changed it for me was having something that measures momentum instead of price. When the Moxie Indicator is above zero, there is still energy behind the move, and a dip into support is usually just a dip. That combination, positive momentum with … Read more

Most people picture the trading life as screens. Six monitors, coffee, someone glued to a chair from the open to the close. That was not my week, and that is really the point of this video. My dad and I flew out to Montana on Saturday morning to spend a few days with a friend who flies the same airplane we do. We flew formation coming in, drove through Glacier National Park, stood in front of mountains that used to sit under a mile of ice, and looked out at … Read more

The Clarity Act failed its cloture vote in the Senate on Tuesday, 49 to 50, well short of the 60 votes required. Formal debate never even started. That was the market structure legislation crypto bulls were counting on to put some wind behind the group, and it is not happening this week. The headline is not the story, though. Crypto was already rolling over before that vote. I have been telling Moxie members for weeks not to chase this thing higher, and I went short into it looking for a … Read more

I got my first look at a stock chart standing next to my dad after he got home from work. High school is when I started taking it seriously, and I started my own trading education company at 30. Twenty plus years later, there are three things I would go back and tell that version of me. None of them are complicated. Run fewer indicators, because every one you add is another vote that can disagree with the rest. Pick a single style and get expert at it, instead of … Read more

An indicator update sounds like housekeeping. This one is not. The Moxie price signal arrows you have been reading for years are still there, and sitting next to them now is a second signal that used to live only in my head: the trampoline trigger, printed right on your chart. Here is the mechanic. When price drops below the 50 SMA while the Moxie Indicator is still holding above zero, you have a potential trampoline setup. The trigger comes when price closes back above the 50 SMA. Flip it for … Read more