It looks like the market developed an undercut and rally with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) midweek, and that would also be defined as a “bear trap” since we closed on the lows Friday then reversed on Monday. Some indications that there could be more upside with the market comes from the Volatility Index (VIX) – the “fear” index – being in an area that it typically reverses. Plus, negative Moxie Indicator™ divergence on the hourly chart supports the idea. Let’s take a look at what to watch: … Read more
Another wrinkle in the chaotic market is word of an emergency Fed meeting today on October 3rd. We don’t yet know what it is about or what the market reaction will be, but we also know the market is very oversold. The kindling is there for a short squeeze. We could see SPY head toward the 21 exponential moving average (EMA) near $380, but we’ll have to see how far this bounce goes. We are still in a bear market, so don’t overstay your bullish welcome if it goes that … Read more
So the Bank of England decided to start up its bond buying program, which is why Wednesday was a stronger day. Will this help? If so, how long? Or will this be throwing fuel on the inflation fire? Only time will tell, but we do know that the stock market indexes were working off their oversold conditions. Let’s take a look at these conditions: There are many variables influencing the stock market. How do you trade this uncertain environment? Members of my Moxie Indicator™ Mastery Program learn how to combine … Read more
This market has been in a downward decline for weeks that started with the Jackson Hole, Wyo., Federal Reserve Symposium, negative U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raising interest rates, and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell talking tough. The bears have been winning and basking in the glory. But as we all know, the pendulum swings from side to side. We are starting to see that things are getting pretty heavy on the short side and the put/call ratio is as high as it’s ever … Read more
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) followed through with plans to raise federal funds interest rates by 75 basis points, and the market didn’t like it. After a few wild moves in both directions on Wednesday after the announcement, the downside was chosen and the market ended on the lows. I think it is clear that we should expect lower prices. The question is what path will it take? Let’s take a look at the potential aftermath: The FOMC plans for fighting inflation are a big topic and monetary policy … Read more
This month, it is notable that the monthly squeeze histogram in the S&P 500 (SPY) has moved negative. In addition to that, the SPY has broken two trend lines and a price support area. The trend continues to the downside, and it’s just a matter of what path the SPY will take on its way south. Let’s take a look at these interesting development in the SPY where something is coiling up to happen: Traders need to understand what is happening when indexes, sectors, and stocks break trend lines as … Read more
After one of the biggest down days on Tuesday, the market has since held and flagged for the day. Zero follow through to the downside so far. Will Thursday continue down or will there be a surprise upside move? I mention this because the put/call ratio is super high and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) is holding some moving averages. Time will tell, but we have some events coming up that could both hold and move the markets. Let’s take a look at how this might play out: … Read more
The move up in the market last week made sense and I was communicating to the Moxie Indicator™ Mastery subscribers that I wanted to see higher prices in order to short into the pattern. This was because much of the market got very oversold after about a three-week plunge. So we got the bounce, but I believe the overall trend of the market is lower and I am viewing this as a shorting opportunity, eventually. Let’s look at the charts: When looking for a bounce in an oversold market, traders … Read more
Hey Market Pilot, After a very heavy couple of weeks, the market has found some support and is now trying to figure out what to do next. Based on typical Moxie Indicator™ patterns and rules, if we get a bounce, it would set us up for an Inverse Trampoline on the hourly time frame. So unless you can find some quick long opportunities, I am only interested in lining up some shorts. Let’s go a little further in the video: When looking for a bounce in an oversold market, traders … Read more
Hey Market Pilot, Friday was quite the roller coaster of a day and I was very happy to not have taken any swing trades. But for those of you who day trade, this was an excellent opportunity and I will show you how the Moxie Indicator™ guided you in and out of the big move. Traders need to stay focused on the latest market influences to understand how the market and individual stocks move. Combine market signals with the Moxie Indicator™ Mastery Program and traders have a flight plan in … Read more
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