Hey Market Pilot, I am curious how many people will be buying the market because news headlines from last weekend will say, “Market hit new all-time high.’ People will think this is amazing and a clear sign of market strength so they should get in… Only to have the market most likely drop lower on them. The market is shifty like that. Reaching the previous high was like a magnet for price, especially as it crawled up the last few days. In the screenshot below, you can see how price … Read more

Hey Market Pilot, The indexes have been on a strong rally the last few days and the S&P 500 (SPY) and Nasdaq (QQQ) have pushed higher than I originally expected. This had me looking around at the last time we saw something similar which was October of 2020. The chart patterns are remarkably similar, but with two differences I will point out. To begin with, in the similarities pictured below you can see both time periods have had price cross over a flat daily 50 simple moving average (SMA). The … Read more

Hey Market Pilot, When the market started pulling back a few weeks ago and we started to lose key support on the daily time frame, it meant that we then had to look at the weekly chart for support. I spent time discussing with the Moxie Indicator™ members and other outlets that the weekly 21 exponential moving average (EMA) was likely to be support and price should bounce there. The question that remained was what would happen after that bounce? In the screenshot below, you can see the S&P 500 … Read more

Hey Market Pilot, What do we do during this time of quick drops and fast rallies if all you are interested in is trading to the long side? Well, you look around and build a list of names that could be the leaders on the next leg up.  One way that I like to do that is simply by looking at charts and observing which tickers have held up the best during the market decline. This would imply they have relative strength and are likely to be the next solid … Read more

Hey Market Pilot, Last week the S&P 500 (SPY) was able to hammer out a bottom at the weekly 21 exponential moving average (EMA), which was something I was looking for. But I have been guiding traders that it’s what comes after that bounce that will determine the next major move. If the SPY is able to do some wiggling around and continue to find support after the bounce off the weekly 21 EMA, then we could see the long trend resume sooner than later. But if the bounce is … Read more

Hey Market Pilot, It has been a difficult, volatile, and heavy market for a couple of weeks now. There were some areas that seemed likely to find support and bounce, but the indexes kept sinking through them. On Monday we continued to get another strong move down, then Tuesday a strong bounce, only to have price drop again for a gap lower Wednesday morning. It took most of the day, but price rallied Wednesday and what this created is known to the Moxie Indicator™ members as a Trampoline Setup on … Read more

Hey Market Pilot, Last week, we saw the market continue down from the inverse trampoline move. That decline was heavy for the week and flagged sideways into more resistance on a 15-minute time frame. This gave us yet another leg down and actually broke the previous lows from Monday, Sept. 20.   As for market action, there is definitely a possibility for the bottom to fall out from and for the market to drop even further. But there is also the chance this is a bear trap to lure in all … Read more

Hey Market Pilot, Last week, I stated that I was wary of the market bounce from Monday the 20th’s big drop. The market never goes in a straight line and when we get such a big move down like that, price often needs to retest support from those lows sometime in the future.  So the bounce from the 20th’s low was fairly easy and a reasonable play, but as referenced in my last newsletter, the bounce was likely into resistance. For the Moxie Indicator™ members, that resistance is what I … Read more

Hey Market Pilot, Last week, I wrote a piece about the S&P 500 (SPY) fading below the daily 50 simple moving average (SMA). In that article, I cautioned about shorting the market because I didn’t know how many opportunities there might be. Turns out there was a nice drop, but you either had to be in the day before or trade it the day of because it didn’t even last an entire market session. The SPY tapped the weekly 21 exponential moving average (EMA) on this past Monday and that … Read more

Hey Market Pilot, The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes were released along with Jerome Powell fielding questions. Pretty much everything stayed the same, but they are conditioning the market to expect tapering, someday. Perhaps they would have been a little tougher on the taper talk if it weren’t for the Evergrande event. So they came in with another wait-and-see position. We know that tapering will have to happen at some point, but will the market implode on the news? I think tapering as the catalyst for the start of … Read more