Hey Market Pilots,The market has been on a tear since the Covid-19 low back around mid-March of last year, but there have been some levels where the market has become volatile and run into resistance. Many of those areas coincide with Fibonacci (Fib) levels, which I think is fascinating. I always wonder if Fibonacci points have become a self-fulfilling prophecy much in the way that the adage of “sell in May and go away” has become its own self-fulfilling prophecy. As far as average true range (ATR) levels go, Fibonacci … Read more

Hey Market Pilots, Late last week the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) gave updated guidelines about mask requirements for vaccinated people. Clearly, this is good news and a big sign that we are making progress in the fight against Covid-19. But does the market care, or was this already baked into the cake? We have seen similar news situations in the past where some headline “revelation” came out which should have been great for the market and the economy based on its opening up or progress to getting back on … Read more

Hey Market Pilots, The market spent all day Wednesday beelining downward to the daily 50 simple moving average (SMA). This happened after there was an extremely fast move to the upside in late March and then a very choppy April. After that, the “sell in May and go away” adage kicked in. In the Moxie world, this all started with an inverse trampoline move on May 10 when price shot past the hourly 50 SMA and the Moxie Indicator™ was below zero. There was also a big gap between price … Read more

Hey Market Pilots, Mother’s Day was over the weekend and I hope all the mothers out there got the acknowledgment they deserve and a nice casual day. For my mom, we decided to go out in the new boat that we just purchased and get some much needed fresh air and family time. In Washington, the weather is still a little cold so we had to bundle up despite the clear day. And if this newsletter is just now reminding you about Mother’s Day (no judgment, I’ve been there before) … Read more

Hey Market Pilots, This market has been one of the more challenging ones I can remember and the most bewildering, too. I say this because if we were to simply look at the indexes, we would think the market is doing really well where names are trending and setups are prevalent. But if you step into the fray and actually try to trade, it has been frustrating to say the least. There certainly are bullish themes as financials, oil, and commodities are doing well. But they tend to be vehicles … Read more

Hey Market Pilots, Once again, my rule of waiting until the day after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes release worked again. It was a little trickier this time as the market opened with a gap up the next morning and seemed as though all was going to be well. But the market proceeded to sell off hard for the first half of the day, then rally just as hard the second half of the day and close exactly where it opened. What the heck? Usually, if there is … Read more

Hey Market Pilots, The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes were released yesterday and when this happens, sometimes the market can get very “exciting”. The excitement comes in because we don’t know how the market is going to react to the sentiment from the Fed. Often, I’ve found, it’s not the moves two hours directly following the announcement that are telling, but instead it’s how the market moves the day after. So by the time you are reading this, we will already know how the market has decided to digest … Read more

Hey Market Pilots, The Nasdaq (QQQ) and S&P 500 (SPY) had very strong runs the other week. So strong, that they pushed up and outside their daily 3 Average True Range (ATR)s and clearly needed a rest after that. That rest would either come in the form of a pullback or a sideways flag. Given that the SPY had reached its 3 ATR two prior times last year on June 9 and September 2, I figured this time could behave similarly and price would drop fairly strongly to the daily … Read more

Hey Market Pilots, Sometimes the market gets into a funk and just isn’t very conducive for trading certain styles. That has been the case for my momentum-based swing trade style. Instead of just twiddling my thumbs all day while I wait it out, I practice to keep myself engaged and sharp. One way that I practice is reviewing my past trades and making notes on what went right and what went wrong. This helps solidify your rules and techniques for future trades. Make some notes on the charts, screen capture … Read more

Hey Market Pilots, On February 17, the market changed in a big way for me. This is when all of the high beta names I was trading so well started to falter, disintegrate, and plunge for the next two months. There were a few residual moves in some of the “reopening” names, and then Big Tech took off while my old go-to names continued to falter. There were many Moxie Indicator™ setups occurring, from Elf Shoe moves to Trampoline moves, but it was hit or miss for which would actually … Read more